The ratchet effect
- A ratchet is a tool which turns a bolt only one way. A type of ratchet is used on roller coaster lift hills.
- Will security every go back to “normal?”
- The TSA is trying to prevent attacks.
- Each dollar spent when there was no attack can be claimed to have worked
- This is proving the negative
- More money means more security - less means the an attack
- If we can never reduce security, this is a ratchet
- Are there other things setup as a ratchet?
- Came across the idea again when reading about copyright rules internationally.
- The Berne Convention required synchronization to a minimum.
- Being a shorter copyright country puts you at a disadvantage.
- This can be a ratchet
- It turns out that if you look, this is a very common thing.
- Leases
- Each year, at lease renewal the cost will be compared to market value
- The landlord is unlikely to reduce your rent - many contracts ensure that they won’t
- Government
- It’s much easier to create or grow a government agency than it is to shrink it.
- When there is a need, a new agency is created
- When the need is gone, the agency would rather find a new need rather than the agency be dissolved.
- Pay
- Industry pay in a market
- People seldom take a job for less pay unless they’re very unhappy
- When a new, high paying company comes in, people start moving toward the high-paying job.
- Other companies have to compete on price
- Overall pay for this field can only go up, at least for a while
- Raises
- Even if the value of a worker’s output goes down, they will not generally accept a pay cut.
- Even a smaller-than-normal raise will be seen as a bad thing by the person getting it
- Industry pay in a market
- Company production
- Once you invest in a factory (or a feature), removing it is much harder because you’ve already paid for it. You don’t want to waste your money
- Group membership
- In like-minded groups, people want to signal their membership.
- As people talk, they will stake out more extreme positions because people are unlikely to want to reduce the strength of the position.
- The end result is a kind of social ratchet who is more extreme than the positions of the individual members.
- Came across the idea again when reading about copyright rules internationally.
- What is the natural end to a ratchet?
- Steady State is possible. Everyone ends up where they are comfortable and no one wants to go further
- Bubble explosion
- A streamlined version comes out that everyone likes better. ___