- Why were the projections so far off? Why are they being reduced?
- I’ve been running my own projections
- Measure ARE working
- It’s like being warned to hit the breaks
- Tracking the growth of disease is like looking at how far and fast something went
- Imagine a train on a straight track
- Every day, we hear about total cases - that is distance - how far down the track it went
- If you compare yesterday’s total to today’s, you get the new cases. That’s like the speed. Cases per day is like miles per hour
- If you compare yesterday’s new cases to today’s, you get the new case growth rate - that is acceleration.
- Treatments
- Current state: Supportive care
- Everything else unproven
- Therapeutics
- Vaccine
- Economic Stress
- The longer a country waits to address the problem, the harder it is to address
- Taiwan and South Korea both have experience with this and were able to address it quickly
- Some other countries lack experience or the leaders lack understanding and delay
- Ways of dealing with this:
- Just let it happen
- Freezing the economy
- Safety net
- Which will be best?
- Lessons have been learned by central bankers
- The financial structure will likely hold up
- Risk of moral hazard is much lower
- Lasting effects
- What was the lasting effect of the great depression?
- How often can we afford to do this?
- We will need to get better
- New laws, better respect for health researchers
- Remember the engineers of the space race
- Social changes
- Hand shakes are probably on the way out
- People will be more aware of hygiene
- Stronger families
- More desire for nature
- Less trusting of big crowds
- Less eating out
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COVID-19 is an on-going pandemic. We talk about how to understand models of the progression and what changes are likely to happen as a result of this experience.